Philip Nel’s Four Hour Trading Strategy

I have always been looking for good strategies on the net and the following is a strategy I got from forexfactory.com forum. This was submitted by Phillip Nel, one of the members of the forexfactory.com forum and it looks very good. It is mainly based on MACD indicator with specific settings. The author of the strategy has documented the strategy very well explaining different entry possibilities using this strategy.

Indicators used in this strategy:

  1. MACD
  2. Moving averages

Currency Pairs:

  1. EURUSD
  2. GBPUSD

The author has mentioned that the he tried only the above two currency pairs. We can try it for other currency pairs as well to check how it is working. (It seems from the discussion forum that, traders have been using this strategy for other currency pairs also)

Time Frame:

  1. 4hr chart

Trade Entry possibilities:

The trade entries are mainly using different formations on the MACD indicator. The following are the main trade entries the author has explained.

  1. Lower highs
  2. Higher Lows
  3. Trend Continuation
  4. Head and Shoulders pattern
  5. Reverse head and shoulders pattern
  6. Double tops
  7. Double bottoms
  8. MACD comes down towards the zero line and turn back up
  9. Round bottom
  10. Round top

The strategy also considered the price levels where normally prices reverse, trend line breakouts, channels etc., the common forex trading techniques.

Resource Location:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=14630

To check the strategy, download the pdf documents uploaded by the author. They are in the original post of the author. They are named as

  1. 4 Hour MACD Forex Strategy.pdf
  2. Planning your Trade.pdf

The first document explains the strategy with a lot of examples and second one is a document about planning the trades.

The strategy was submitted in Jan, 2007 and traders are still discussing and using this strategy. The author, Phillip Nel, is still supporting this thread and uploading videos also sometimes. Check this strategy and see how it is working. I will demo trade it first and present the results next week.

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Raj’s Forex Strategies

These are a series of articles in which I will be explaining a few strategies that I use. These are all day trading strategies and they work very well. I will be explaining each strategy with examples for long and short trades and when to use these strategies and when not to use. I will be giving analysis for these strategies for different currency pairs for different years. These are for educational purpose only and you need a lot of practice. Make sure that you do demo trading first before using these strategies.

Raj’s Forex Strategy 1

  1. Strategy
  2. Short Trade Example
  3. Long Trade Example
  4. When you should not use this strategy
  5. Drawing Trend Lines Correctly
  6. Few More Examples for this strategy
  7. Analysis
  • Analysis for GBPUSD currency pair
  • Year 2010, Year 2009, Year 2008, Year 2007, Year 2006, Year 2005, Year 2004, Year 2003, Year 2002, Year 2001, Year 2000
  • Take profit estimations for GBPUSD Currency Pair
  • Analysis For EURUSD Currency Pair
  • Year 2010, Year 2009, Year 2008, Year 2007, Year 2006, Year 2005, Year 2004, Year 2003, Year 2002, Year 2001, Year 2000
  • Take Profit Estimations for EURUSD Currency Pair
  • Analysis for USDCHF currency pair
  • Year 2010, Year 2009, Year 2008, Year 2007, Year 2006, Year 2005, Year 2004, Year 2003, Year 2002, Year 2001, Year 2000
  • Take profit estimations for USDCHF Currency Pair Analysis For USDJPY Currency Pair

I am presently doing the analysis for different strategies for different currency pairs. I will provide links for the different years whenever I am done with the analysis. I will adding more to this post like other strategies and analysis for other currency pairs for different strategies.

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Idea Behind Forexbees.com

Idea Behind Forexbees.com

In this video I would like to share with you the idea behind my blog forexbees.com.

I have started trading around 4 years ago. Just like any newbie in forex trading I also faced a lot problems in the beginning. Don’t know any thing about technical analysis, fundamental analysis. So I did a lot of research in learning forex trading.

I started this blog mainly to share my ideas and experience with others. I am presenting a lot of strategies for free on my blog. You can use them for your trading but make sure that you practice those strategies initially in demo trading. Because one particular strategy is working for somebody else doesn’t mean that it works for you also. So with whatever the strategies I am presenting in my blog make sure that you practice them.

I am also collecting a lot of useful resources that other bloggers present in their blogs for your reference. You can check those in the resources category.

I am also collecting a lot of videos that show some very good forex trading techniques, tips and a lot other things about trading and you can find them under videos section.

I believe, as a forex trader you need to constantly learn. So I am collecting lot of different useful information in my blog. You can check different categories in my blog to see all that information.

I try to update my blog every day with information that I think is useful for any forex trader.

You also can share your ideas about trading and you are welcome to comment in my blog about any post.

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Resistance and Support Trading Strategy

Resistance and Support Trading Strategy:

This strategy uses the concept of price reversals at support and resistance levels (plotted with a pivot point calculator), and the use of reversal candle patterns to know when a price level will change. To understand this strategy, the trader needs to know the reversal candle patterns. Here they are below:

Bullish Candlestick Patterns

Bearish Candlestick Patterns

This is the application of this strategy.

TIME FRAME: 4HR CHARTS AND HIGHER TIME FRAMES

INDICATORS:

1) Automatic Pivot Point Calculator

SELL SETUP:

Apply the automatic pivot point calculator to plot the resistance and support points. If we have a reversal candle pattern forming at a resistance candle, place a SELL entry at the open of the next candle. If we have negative news on the base currency traded, this makes it even likelier for the signal to gain momentum.

For the chart below, there was a situation from Ireland that forced down the Euro against the US dollar. A stronger dollar means weaker oil prices and so this led to the steep 650 pip fall we witnessed.

Sell Entry

BUY ENTRY:

Apply the automatic pivot point calculator and wait for the candles needed for the Buy Signal to form. In this example, the Euro, which had been on a sustained downfall, was waiting for the chance to benefit from some profit taking from Euro sellers. This chance came up on the 4hour chart on November 30th, 2010, when the Doji formed after the bearish candle. This is a bullish signal, good for about 200 pips.

Buy Entry

EXIT RULES:

The exit point can be determined using the Fibonacci tool, which shows possible exit points at 38.2% or 50% Fibo levels.

Exiting the trade using Fibonacci Levels

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Forex Alligator Indicator

Alligator indicator is a free indicator that comes free with metatrader platform. You can check it under indicators and you will find it. It was developed by Bill Williams. This is a very good indicator for determining the trend.

How the alligator indicator is made of?

The alligator indicator is made by three smoothed moving averages

1)      13 SMA shift 8 Blue color – called Alligator’s Jaw

2)      8 SMA shift 5 Red color – called Alligator’s Teeth

3)      5 SMA shift 3 Green color – called Alligator’s Lips

The following picture shows you a metatrader chart with an alligator indicator on it.

Forex Alligator Indicator

Forex Alligator Indicator

How to use the Alligator Indicator:

The basic trading technique is when the red moving average crosses the blue moving average, trade in that direction. When the red moving average crosses the blue moving average again exit the trade.  Check the following picture. The red moving average crosses the blue moving average and it’s this is where enter a sell trade. This is identified a point 1 in the picture. When the red moving average crossed the blue moving average again exit the trade. This is identified as point 2 in the picture.

Using Alligator Indicator

Using Alligator Indicator

But the market doesn’t always goes in a trend as shown in the above picture. A lot of times the market goes in to choppy conditions. Around 60% of the time the market goes into choppy conditions. Check the following picture. In the following picture the red moving average cross the blue moving average but the trend did not following that direction.

Choppy Market Conditions

Choppy Market Conditions

This is where you have to be careful. This is where you can use other indicators to enter or exit trading. One of the techniques I use, I wait until the alligator indicator to clearly spread out that means there is enough distance between all the three moving averages and there are no clear or strong support or resistance lines. Then use a stochastic oscillator to enter trading. In the following picture the trend is clearly upwards as the alligator moving averages are far apart and there are no support or resistance lines. Then wait until the price reverses back. Wait for the oscillator indicator to reach the oversold region. Once it reaches the oversold region wait for it to cross above the oversold region. Then enter a long trade. Once the price goes up some number of pips, let’s say 20 or 30 you can move the stop loss to your entry. Once the stochastic reaches the overbought region you can exit the trade.

Alligator indicator and Stochastic Oscillator

Alligator indicator and Stochastic Oscillator

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Forex Symmetrial Triangles

Symmetrical Triangles:

Symmetrical triangles are very common forex chart patterns. These represent a period of indecision. Symmetrical triangles are usually considered as a continuation of overall trend. A symmetrical triangle should contain at least two lower highs and two higher lows. When you see these higher lows and lower highs and join them a symmetrical triangle takes shape. Triangles represent a battle between buyers & sellers. This means that either buyers or sellers are not pushing the price far enough to make a clear trend.

Symmetrical triangles tend to breakout in the direction of the previous trend.

Check the following picture. It is showing higher lows and lower highs. When joined those lower highs and higher lows it formed a symmetrical triangle.

Forex Symmetrical Triangle

Forex Symmetrical Triangle

Trading Entry: Enter the trade when the top trend line or the bottom trend line is broken with a strong candlestick. A strong candlestick means a candlestick which has a large body with relatively small tails or no tails at all. Check the following picture. In the following picture the top trend line is broken with a strong candlestick. It does not have long tails compared to the body of the candlestick. So its a good opportunity to enter a long trade.

symmetrical triangle broken with a strong candlestick

symmetrical triangle broken with a strong candlestick

If the candlestick has a long tail compared to the body of the candlestick and if the tail and not the body of the candlestick that break the top trend line or the bottom trend line then do not enter the trade. For example check the following picture. In the following picture a symmetrical triangle is shown and the symmetrical triangle top trend line is broken by the tail of the candlestick and not the body of the candlestick. Moreover the candlestick has a long tail compared to the body of the candlestick. So its not a good opportunity to enter the trade.

symmetrical triangle broken with a tail and not with the candlestick body

symmetrical triangle broken with a tail and not with the candlestick body

Take profit and stop loss:

Measure the base of the triangle. The price difference should be the same amount as the breakout.

We measure the base of the triangle by taking the price difference between the highest high and the lowest low once the triangle has started to form. Once breakout occurs enter trade. Set stop inside triangle. Set target (limit) for less than amount of the triangle base. Monitor trade until exit price is achieved. Breakouts from triangles tend to occur very quickly.

Check the following picture. In the following picture the difference between the highest high and the lowest low is 60 pips. So the potential break out will be 60 pips. Once the top trend line is broken by the candlestick, it penetrated 10 pips upwards. So the profit should be 50 more pips. But always use some less number of pips than the actual target. Since in the above example there are 50 pips more for profit put the take profit level 5 pips less than the original that means 45 pips. Set stop loss around 5 to 10 pips below the top trend line with in the triangle.

Take profit and stop loss

Take profit and stop loss

The following are some of the real time examples of the symmetrical triangles formed on different currency pairs price charts.

EURUSD Hourly Chart Symmetrical Triangle:

EURUSD hourly chart symmetrical triangle

EURUSD hourly chart symmetrical triangle

NZDUSD four hour chart symmetrical triangle:

NZDUSD four hour chart symmetrical triangle

NZDUSD four hour chart symmetrical triangle

USDCAD hourly chart symmetrical triangle:

USDCAD hourly chart symmetrical triangle

USDCAD hourly chart symmetrical triangle

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Forex Rectangles

Forex Rectangle Patterns:

A forex rectangle pattern is technical analysis pattern consisting of horizontal lines called support and resistance lines. Rectangles are used for channels or Breakout Trades. Generally forex rectangle patterns are considered as continuation patterns. To say a pattern as a rectangle pattern, it should have at least four pivot points two at the top resistance line and two at the bottom support line. It is considered a period of indecision. Confirm top and bottom with four pivot points. Two on top, two on bottom. Some times rectangles may form with more than four pivot points. For example you may find a rectangle with 6 pivot points, three at the top and three at the bottom. This is ok. But a rectangle should have have at least four points with two at the top and two at the bottom.

The following is an example picture of how a rectangle pattern looks like in a down trend. It is drawn using four pivot points, two at the top resistance line and two at the bottom resistance line. If any of these resistance lines broken in any direction it’s a good opportunity to enter the trade in that direction. Since rectangles are considered as continuation trend patterns I showed that it is breaking in the downward direction. It may not be true always. Sometimes it may break the rectangle in the reverse direction also.

forex rectanle

Forex Rectangle Pattern

Trading Entry:

Enter the trade when the support or resistance line is broken with a strong candlestick. A strong candlestick means a candlestick which has a large body with relatively small tails or no tails at all. Check the following picture. In the following picture the support line is broken with a strong candlestick. It does not have long tails compared to the body of the candlestick. So its a good opportunity to enter a short trade.

Forex rectangle broken with a strong candle stick

Forex rectangle broken with a strong candle stick

If the candlestick has a long tail compared to the body of the candlestick and if its the tail and not the body of the candlestick that broke the support or resistance line then do not enter the trade. For example check the following picture. In the following picture a rectangle is showing and the rectangle is broken by the tail of the candlestick and not the body of the candlestick. Moreover the candlestick has a long tail compared to the body of the candlestick. So its not a good opportunity to enter the trade.

Forex rectangle broken by the tail of the candlestick and not the body

Forex rectangle broken by the tail of the candlestick and not the body

So whenever the support or resistance line is broken with a strong candlestick wait for the candlestick to the completed. When the candlestick completed enter the trade

Take profit and stop loss levels:

Measure the difference between top & bottom that means the resistance and support lines. The difference is expected to be roughly the same as the potential breakout. When breakout occurs enter into trade. Set stops inside the rectangle & Set target (limit) for less than the difference between top and bottom rectangle. Remember target price is measured from rectangle. Monitor the trade until exit price is achieved.

Check the following picture. In the following picture the difference between the resistance and support line is 40 pips. So the potential break out will be 40 pips. Once the support line is broken by the candlestick penetrated 10 pips downward. So the profit should be 30 pips more. But always use some less number of pips than the actual target. Since in the above example there are 30 pips more for profit put the take profit level 5 pips less than the original that means 25 pips. Set stop loss around 5 to 10 pips above the support line with in the rectangle.

Stop loss and take profit levels

Stop loss and take profit levels

If the market tests the original support or resistance levels of the rectangle it can be an opportunity to reenter the original trade. That means sometimes the price charts my retrace back to the support line or resistance line then its another good opportunity to enter the trading.

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Forex Chart Formations

What are chart formations?

Chart formations are naturally occurring patterns in forex trading. These patterns indicate future breakouts in forex trading. If you can identify these patterns you can much better benefit in forex trading as you can identify the break outs. The entire goal is to spot big price movements before they happen so that you can take advantage of them. Using these chart formations gives us a very good opportunity to identify these big price movements when they are about to happen.

There are many patterns in technical analysis like candlesticks techniques etc. But here I am going to deal with the traditional price vs time charts that can be visually identified on price charts.

Why do chart formations work?

Chart formations are one of the simplest technical analysis that anyone can do. Technical analysis makes the assumption that history repeats itself. They have been in practice for a long time and most of the traders follow them. Not only for forex, these chart formations also work for other things like stocks, commodities etc. Most of the traders always look for these chart formations and whenever a formation is there traders will try to enter trading so these chart formations always work.

Why should I use chart formations?

If you are new to forex and if you don’t know much about technical analysis chart formations are one of the simplest technical analysis you can do as it is very easy to understand and apply them. Even if you are an advanced trader then also you can use it as this is very powerful technical analysis. Chart formations offer very simple approach to find trading opportunities. As you can directly spot the formations just by looking at the charts they are very powerful.

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Alligator and Candlesticks Forex Techniques

Alligator Indicator:

In Forex we have many technical indicators in which Alligator is one of them. Its a combination of three moving averages. The blue line is a 13-period Smoothed Moving Average, moved into the future by 8 bars. The red line is 8-period Smoothed Moving Average, moved by 5 bars into the future. The green line is a 5-period Smoothed Moving Average, moved by 3 bars into the future. These 3 moving averages form the forex alligator indicator.

If you are using Meta Trader as your forex platform, you can find it in the navigator window under custom indicators. When the three moving averages of the this forex indicator are very close together, that means the forex market is very volatile or there is no trend at all. When the three moving averages are very wide apart and they are moving either up or down that means the forex market is trending.

forex Metatrader Alligator

forex Metatrader Alligator

Candlestick Patterns:

We have many candlestick patterns in forex. The following are the main patterns that I look for, when I do forex trading.

Engulfing Pattern: Engulfing pattern is the best pattern, I believe in forex trading. In engulfing pattern one candlestick body completely occupies the other candlestick body. There are two types in this.
Bullish Engulfing Pattern: In this pattern the bearish candlestick(red candle stick in the picture – price has decreased in that particular time frame) is completely occupied by the bullish candlestick(white candlestick in the picture – price has increased in that particular time frame). This is a buy signal for forex traders.
Bullish Engulfing Candlesticks

Bullish Engulfing Candlesticks

Bearish Engulfing Pattern: In this pattern the bullish candlestick(white candlestick in the picture – price has increased in that particular time frame) is completely occupied by the bearish candlestick(red candle stick in the picture – price has decreased in that particular time frame). This is a sell signal for forex traders.

Bearish Engulfing Candlestick Pattern

Bearish Engulfing Candlestick Pattern

Doji Pattern: Doji is candlestick with a relatively small body or no body at all compared to the total height of the candle stick.

Forex Doji Candlestick

Forex Doji Candlestick

Alligator and Different Candlestick Patterns:

Technique1: When the three moving averages are wide apart and they are up or down that means the forex market is trending. Wait until the forex market retraces back and touches any of the three lines. When it touches any of the three moving averages, check if it forms the engulfing pattern. Once it forms an engulfing pattern and the candlestick is completed then enter the trade in that direction.
For example in a down trend, wait for the bearish candlestick pattern at any of the moving averages. Check it in the picture. Its a GBPUSD trade on . The moving averages are started widening and the trend is downwards. After some time the forex market retraced back to the second moving average line. It formed an engulfing pattern there. Once the candlestick is completed its a good point to enter the forex trading at that point.
Bearish Candlestick Formation In a Downtrend

Bearish Candlestick Formation In a Downtrend

In an uptrend, wait for the bullish candlestick pattern at any of themoving averages. Check it in the picture. The moving averages started widening and the trend is upwards. After sometime the forex market retraced back to the first moving average line. It formed an bullish engulfing pattern there. Once the Candlestick is completed its a good point to enter the forex market at that point.

If you are using metatrader as your forex platform, check now to see how it is working.

Bullish Candlestick Formation in Forex Uptrend

Bullish Candlestick Formation in Forex Uptrend

Technique2: When the forex market is trending up or down, wait until it retraces back to any of the three moving averages. Once it retraced back check if it forms a doji. If a doji is formed wait for the next candlestick. If the next candlestick is in the direction of trend after a doji, then we can enter the forex market after the candlestick is completed.
In the following picture the trend is downwards.
After sometime the market retraced back and it formed a doji at the first moving average line. After the doji is formed, the next candlestick is in in the direction of trend. so we can enter the trade after the candlestick is completed.
Doji Formation in a forex downtrend

Doji Formation in a forex downtrend

In the following picture the trend is upwards. After sometime the market retraced back and it formed a doji at the first moving average line. After the doji is formed, the next candlestick is in the direction of trend. So we can enter the trade after the candlestick is completed.
Doji formation in a forex uptrend

Doji formation in a forex uptrend

The following are some of the examples for forex alligator and bullish and bearish engulfing candlestick formations for different currency pairs at different times.
USDJPY Forex Alligator Uptrend Bullish Engulfing Candlestick Pattern

USDJPY Forex Alligator Uptrend Bullish Engulfing Candlestick Pattern

Uptrend Bullish Engulfing Candlestick Pattern
USDCHF Forex Alligator Uptrend Bullish Engulfing Candlestick Pattern

USDCHF Forex Alligator Uptrend Bullish Engulfing Candlestick Pattern

USDCHF Forex Alligator Uptrend Bullish Engulfing Candlestick Pattern

Downtrend Bearish Engulfing Candlestick Pattern
EURUSD Forex Alligator Downtrend Bearish Engulfing Candlestick Pattern

EURUSD Forex Alligator Downtrend Bearish Engulfing Candlestick Pattern

EURUSD Forex Alligator Downtrend Bearish Engulfing Candlestick Pattern

The following are some of the examples for forex alligator and doji candlestick formations for different currency pairs at different times.

Downtrend Doji Candlestick Formation
USDCHF Forex Alligator Downtrend Doji Candlestick Formation

USDCHF Forex Alligator Downtrend Doji Candlestick Formation

USDCHF Forex Alligator Downtrend Doji Candlestick Formation
Downtrend Doji Candlestick Formation
USDCAD Forex Alligator Downtrend Doji Candlestick Formation

USDCAD Forex Alligator Downtrend Doji Candlestick Formation

USDCAD Forex Alligator Downtrend Doji Candlestick Formation
Down And Uptrends Doji Candlestick Formation
EURUSD Forex Alligator Down And Uptrends Doji Candlestick Formation

EURUSD Forex Alligator Down And Uptrends Doji Candlestick Formation

EURUSD Forex Alligator Down And Uptrends Doji Candlestick Formation

Note: This technique may not work in asian market timings. This works very good during the New York timings and before the asian market starts.

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