The following is the USDCHF hourly chart as of Jan. 13th, 2010, 11 PM. If you observe the chart it you can see that it is going in a channel. It can break the channel in any direction. But you observe the daily chart you can see that the trend is downwards. So there is a large probability that it will break the channel in the downward direction. It my break in the upward direction also. But I will enter the trade only if it breaks in the downward direction since the daily trend is in the downward direction. Check the following pictures.
USDCHF Hourly Chart:
USDCHF Daily Chart:









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